Profit Booking at Higher levels

Alex Mathew, head of research centre, Geojit Financial Services said, ``Nifty closed above 4,500 but tested an intraday high of 4,541 where we were facing resistance. Tomorrow if it breaks this level then it can test 4,600 and 4,628 easily.Beaten down Realty and Banking stocks attracted buying from institutional investors; which caused minor short covering.

The uptrend in these counters can sustain for another one or two days. Capital goods were also in good demand; bargain hunters were trying their luck while investing their stocks, he said.Japan`s Daiichi Sankyo buys Ranbaxy stake for Rs 147-198 million which will not have much impact on the stock price. The combined pharma company would probably be the 15th biggest in the world. The stock has tested an intraday high of 591.8 on NSE, but closed marginally higher at 561 with sell order of 27,101 shares at the post closing session.The overall trend remains negative but minor uptrend due to oversold situation may help the indices tomorrow.``P K Agarwal, president, research, Bonanza Portfolio said, ``Market continued to rally in continuation of yesterday`s strong closure.

The markets had gap up opening at 4,469 and continued to trade above the level of 4,500 for major part of the day. Nifty touched a day`s high of 4,540.5 and days low of 4,482.15.
In the last hour of the trade bulls took control of the market and rallied the market to close above the 4,500 level. Nifty closed at 4,523.6.

The star performer of the day was Ranbaxy. The management announced that Daiichi Sankyo will buy out the entire promoter stake of 35% in Ranbaxy Laboratories at Rs 737 a share.
This also helped other pharma stocks, most of which closed in the green.

Markets are likely to trade in the positive zone, at least in the first hour, for tomorrow also. Nifty can try to reach levels of 4,570/4,640 on the upside.

Nifty is likely to find support at around 4,450. Trading strategy for the day has to be stock specific

Stocks Edge Lower Inline With Global Peers

MUMBAI: Equities opened lower yet again Tuesday tracking declines in markets overseas and as domestic cues were far from encouraging. Apart from spiraling oil prices and lack of participation from FIIs, market men also said with inflation showing no signs of easing, the Reserve Bank may hike interest rates again.

The Sensex, which plunged to 14,919.05 after opening with a negative gap of around 85 points at 14,979.96, has now recovered to 15,038.51 and trimmed down its loss to around 0.18% or 27.59 points, thanks to some strong buying in select front line stocks. The Nifty is down with a loss of 0.4% or 17.90 points at 4483.05. Earlier, after opening at 4522, it had tumbled to a low of 4445.80.

Biggest index losers comprised Tata Consultancy Services (down 2.23%), Jaiprakash Associates (2.21%), ONGC (2.13%), DLF (1.35%), Reliance Infrastructure (1.3%), Hindustan Unilever (1.27%) and State Bank of India (1.26%).

Major midcap losers included Ashapura Minechem down 6.5%, Brigade Enterprise fell over 5%, Gammon India dropped 6%, Indotech Transformers dropped 6%, Lanco Infra down 5.6%, Nucleus Software dropped 7%, Unity Infra dropped 9%, Indus Fila dropped 9%, KPR Mills fell 8.4%, Marksans fell 6.5%, Philip Carbon Black fell 9%

Biggest Sensex gainers were Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 1.6%), Bharti Airtel (0.16%) and Hindalco Industries (0.06%).Market breadth on BSE showed 498 declines against 337 advances.The National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was down 37 points or 0.8 per cent at 4464.35.

Gainers include Himachal Futuristic up 6%, Atlas Copco rose 4.7%, Bata India rose 4.25%, ICSA rose 5%. Prime Focus up over 8%, Torrent Pharma rose 9%, Bajaj Electricals rose 9%, Bosch Chassis rose 20% due to a new offer for delisting, Emkay Shares rose 6.8% on really thin volumes, Fortis Financial Services rose 10% on thin volume of 3000 shares, LGB & Bro rose 11% on news of possible unit stake to Reynolds, Manugraph rose 6% on the BSE, Panchmahal Steels rose 14% on just 61 shares, Zandu Pharma rose 7%. Many smallcap stocks have shown heavy gains on exceptionally thin volumes in today's trade.

Market breadth was poor throughout and closed in the negative with approximately 1082 advancing to 1865 declining stocks on the BSE and 386 advancing to 781 declining stocks on the NSE.

"I think the selling will continue. I don't expect to see any support coming in before Nifty reaches 4300 - the 38.2% retracement level from the January 2008 high to the March 2003 bottom," said Viral Doshi, independent technical and derivatives analyst.

Crude prices dipped more than $4 to settle at $134.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Monday, but only after Friday's $11-a-barrel surge to a new record.

Week from Jun 02 - Jun 06 2008

BSE Sensex

Market Close : 15572.18

Previous Close : 16415.57

Weekly change : -843.39 [ -5.14% ]

Highest Closing Index : 16063.18 on Jun 02

Lowest Closing Index : 15514.79 on Jun 04

Biggest Gain : +254.93 [ +1.64% ] on Jun 05

Biggest Loss : -447.77 [ -2.81% ] on Jun 04

Overall : Bearish

S&P CNX Nifty

Market Close : 4627.80

Previous Close : 4870.10Weekly change : -242.30 [ -4.98% ]

Highest Closing Index : 4739.60 on Jun 02

Lowest Closing Index : 4585.60 on Jun 04

Biggest Gain : +91.35 [ +1.99% ] on Jun 05

Biggest Loss : -130.30 [ -2.76% ] on Jun 04

Overall : Bearish

Weekly Sensex Round UP

BSE Sensex
Market Close : 16415.57
Previous Close : 16649.64
Weekly change : -234.07 [ -1.41% ]
Highest Closing Index : 16525.37 on May 28
Lowest Closing Index : 16275.59 on May 27
Biggest Gain : +249.78 [ +1.53% ] on May 28
Biggest Loss : -301.14 [ -1.81% ] on May 26
Overall : Bearish
S&P CNX Nifty
Market Close : 4870.10
Previous Close : 4946.55
Weekly change : -76.45 [ -1.55% ]
Highest Closing Index : 4918.35 on May 28
Lowest Closing Index : 4835.30 on May 29
Biggest Gain : +58.55 [ +1.20% ] on May 28
Biggest Loss : -83.05 [ -1.69% ] on May 29
Overall : Bearish

Monthly Sensex Round Up

BSE Sensex

Market Close : 16415.57

Previous Month Close : 17287.31

Monthly change : -871.74 [ -5.04% ]

Highest Closing Index : 17600.12 on May 02

Lowest Closing Index : 16275.59 on May 27

Biggest Gain : +375.19 [ +2.21% ] on May 15

Biggest Loss : -343.58 [ -2.01% ] on May 09

Overall : Bearish


S&P CNX

NiftyMarket Close : 4870.10

Previous Month Close : 5165.90

Monthly change : -295.80 [ -5.73% ]

Highest Closing Index : 5228.20 on May 02

Lowest Closing Index : 4835.30 on May 29

Biggest Gain : +103.50 [ +2.07% ] on May 15

Biggest Loss : -99.10 [ -1.95% ] on May 09

Overall : Bearish

Weekly Review from May 19 - May 23 2008

BSE Sensex

Market Close : 16649.64

Previous Close : 17434.94

Weekly change : -785.30 [ -4.50% ]

Highest Closing Index : 17243.16 on May 21

Lowest Closing Index : 16649.64 on May 23

Biggest Gain : +12.98 [ +0.08% ] on May 21

Biggest Loss : -336.05 [ -1.95% ] on May 22Overall : Bearish

S&P CNX Nifty

Market Close : 4946.55

Previous Close : 5157.70

Weekly change : -211.15 [ -4.09% ]

Highest Closing Index : 5117.65 on May 21

Lowest Closing Index : 4946.55 on May 23

Biggest Gain : +12.70 [ +0.25% ] on May 21

Biggest Loss : -92.20 [ -1.80% ] on May 22

Overall : Bearish

Soaring crude oil, high inflation pull market lower

The key benchmark indices suffered losses in the week ended Friday, 3 May 2008 following concerns that soaring global crude oil prices which struck record high of over $135 barrel and spiraling inflation will impact growth.
The BSE Sensex slumped 785.30 points or 4.50% to 16,649.64 in the week ended Friday, 23 May 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty declined 211.15 points or 4.09% to 4,946.55in the week.The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 192.59 points or 2.77% at 6,937.11 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index rose shed 102.83 points or 1.19% at 8,517.43. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 673.40 crore in this month, till 21 May 2008. They sold shares worth Rs 11,031.40 crore in calendar year 2008, till 21 May 2008. Domestic funds sold shares worth Rs 639.80 this month, till 14 May 2008. Mutual funds were net sellers of shares worth Rs 578.30 crore in this month, till 20 May 2008.

Concerns about monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India following high inflation rate pulled the market lower on Tuesday, 20 May 2008. The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 204.76 points or 1.17% at 17,230.18 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 52.75 points or 1.02% at 5,104.95, on that day.

Sharp fall in US stocks overnight and record breaking crude oil prices above $135 a barrel triggered a broad based decline in blue chips on Thursday, 22 May 2008. The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 336.05 points or 1.95% at 16,907.11 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 92.2 points or 1.8% at 5,025.45 on that day.

On Friday, 23 May 2008, the 30-share BSE Sensex settled 257.47 points or 1.52% lower at 16,649.64 and the broader based S&P CNX Nifty declined 78.9 points or 1.57% at 4,946.55 as relentless selling in realty, oil & gas and metal stocks spooked sell-off in late trade, erasing early gains.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries declined 3.05% to Rs 2,554.80 in the week. It has reportedly formed a $1 billion joint venture with New York-based Vornado Realty Trust to set up a real estate fund.

India's largest commercial bank State Bank of India slumped 7.67% to Rs 1,573.20 in the week. It has reportedly decided to stop giving loans for the purchase of tractors and other farm equipment. Due to mounting non-performing assets in the farm equipment loan segment, the bank has decided to temporarily put on hold all future advances for farm equipment like tractors, power tillers and combined harvesters, the reports suggested.

India's largest state-run oil exploration firm in terms of revenue Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) shed 5.14% to Rs 902.05 in the week. It is reportedly planning to sell 30% to 40% each in two blocks in Vietnam to share the risks and drilling costs. ONGC owns 100% in the two deepwater exploration blocks. The buyer has not yet been finalised, the reports added.


HDFC Bank, India's second largest private sector bank in terms of net profit, declined 7.92% to Rs 1,383.35 in the week. The Reserve Bank of India has approved the scheme of amalgamation of Centurion Bank of Punjab with HDFC Bank. The scheme of amalgamation will come into effect from 23 May 2008.

India's largest telecom services provider by market share Bharti Airtel lost 1.71% to Rs 836.80 in the week. As per reports Bharti Airtel has forged an exclusive alliance with Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) that will enable the telco to access 18,000 retail outlets and 5,500 Indane cooking gas distributors of the oil giant.

Inflation based on the whole price index rose 7.82% in the year through 10 May 2008, marginally lower than 7.83% rise in the previous week, government data released on 23 May 2008, showed. Meanwhile, inflation for the year through 15 March 2008 was revised upwards to 8.02% compared to provisional figure of 6.68%.

Meanwhile the Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) plans to keep in abeyance the imposition of upfront margins for institutional trades in the cash market. Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had earlier asked institutional investors to pay upfront margins from 16 June 2008. In the light of difficulties expressed by the market participants regarding implementation of upfront margining of institutional trades in the cash market, it has been decided to keep the same in abeyance, Sebi said in a circular issued to stock exchanges.

On Wednesday, 21 May 2008, the US Federal Reserve cut its 2008 US economic growth forecast and signaled that mounting concerns over inflation would make further interest rate cuts unlikely, driving the three major US indexes down over 1.5%. Oil prices surged to a record high above $135 per barrel on Thursday, 22 May 2008, stoking fears of global inflation.

Weekly Update:Sensex falls 863 points during the week

The index dropped more than expected by 863 points in the week to close at 16737. Weakness is expected to persist and a further fall of further 1000 points is not ruled out now and hence trade carefully or you will loose heavily. Some stocks can be considered for delivery and investment and more if they go down from here by 10 % or so since they are already considerably down.

GRASIM Close 2340The stock has come a long way down from 3949 achieved in November ’07 which is about 40 %. The stock seems to be a good buy now with downside restricted to upto say 2300 now from which a rise of atleast 10 to 15 % is on the cards. Buy and hold this stock which will give returns in the future.

CROMPTON Close 243.60Down from a top of 454 hit in November ’07 , the stock can be bought now as it supports at 230. Buy with a stop of 224 for a target of 275 and more in the coming month.

INDIA CEMENTS Close 161.05The stock which in December had peaked to 333 is down to half now and very less downside left in the stock. Support exists at 150 levels and one can enter this stock now and add at minor declines, for it will give good returns if held for some time. Stop may be kept at 145 but long term investors can accumulate at all declines.

MAX INDIA Close 155.70
The stock is ready for an upswing up to 180 levels. It is near to reverse from here and supports exist at 140. Buy now and at declines, for the stock moves well and one can expect decent returns from here with less downside risk. Some activity is also witnessed on 9th.

GLOBAL BROADCAST NEWS Close 119.30
The stock gives good trading opportunities. The stock which split around 240 levels in February is down to half and having supports at 110 levels, one can enter the stock now for it will go upto 145 levels again in the near term.

JYOTHY LAB Close 570.20
The stock which came out with an IPO this year listed and was up to 820 levels in Feb. It is now down quite a lot and one can watch and enter at declines upto 550. The stock is bound to go up now and one can use the opportunity to enter and exit after making gains once it reaches 640 in the short term.

KIRLOSKAR OIL ENGINES Close 106.70The stock which split in October last was around 165 levels and has come down substantially. Buy with a stop of 95 for it is close to bottoming out and one can expect it to go upwards up to 125 initially in the short term.

Last week review

The index has ended the week again in positive zone closing at 17600 up by 585 points. Now the short term target of 18000 may come soon enough in the coming week, but caution is advised as the index will probably correct for a while by some 700 points anytime and wait for a while before long commitments.

ULTRATECH CEMENT Close 755.25The stock is down from a high of 1165 hit in October last year which is about 35 % down and it may not fall more now. Keep a stop of 730 and buy this stock, for a target of 850 is in the offing in the near term and long term investors can accumulate.

GUJARAT MINERAL Close 335.75After the stock split in November it has fallen from 600 to these levels. Buy now with a stop of 310 for a target of 400 in the short term as it has supports at about 310 and may not slide further now.

SHREE PRECOATED Close 195.50A very volatile stock . In January it was at 483 and is down by 60 % today. It has supports at 175 levels and hence buy this stock since it is showing signs of reaching 250 in the short term. Keep a stop of 180.

BALAJI TELE Close 177.20The stock is ready to recover now since it had peaked at 388 in November and is also considerably down by 54 % . Buy with a stop of 160 for it will race upto 215 levels in the short term.

PRITHVI INFORMATION Close 178.65This stock is ready to move upwards as it was at 352 in February and one can buy now with a stop of 160 for a quick target of 225 in the near term.

GLORY POLYFILMS Close 63.80A high risk high return stock. After listing in June last year at these levels only it had raced to 108 in Feb and is back again. Keep a stop of 55 and buy this stock for some day it will again scale 85 in no timeSUBROS Close 38.85Buy with a stop of 33 for a target of 51 in the short term. The stock is ready for its upmove and has corrected from 68 levels in January .

The week ended well again at 16481 up by 674 points during the week

The week ended well again at 16481 up by 674 points during the week. Upward momentum can take the index upto 17100 during the week and supports for the time being exist at 15700 levels. A few stocks which have yet to rise are

MAHINDRA AND MAHINDRA Close 638.90 / TATA MOTORS Close 618.10The stock has made a bottoming out at about 610 levels and hence one can buy now and in the zones upto 615 or so. The stock is looking ripe to go up swiftly to 700 levels in the near term as it had peaked to 872 on 1st Jan. Buy now and add at minor declines with a stop at 610.Tata Motors also has quite close to bottoming out now and will reverse now or from about 600 levels. Buy and add at declines for it will cross 700 again in the next few months.

SKF INDIA Close 309.75
The stock has also formed a bottom formation around 280 levels and is close to now rallying upto 350 in the short term. From a top of 489 on 31st Dec the stock has now shown signs of a breakout and seems to be a safe bet . Buy now and add at further declines instead of going for a stop.

SUN TV Close 296.25
Buy with a stop of 280 for a target of 340 in the short term. Having come down from 430 achieved on 8th Jan the reversal will be fast now and hence one can enter the stock .

RAYMOND Close 269.50
Not much downside left in the stock, perhaps upto 250 only now. Buy with a stop of 250 for a target of 325. The stock had peaked to 474 on 2/1/08 and is down by 43 % since then

INDIA CEMENTS Close 179.70
This too has less downside risk as it has supports at 165 levels. Buy now and add at declines for the stock will once again go above 225 in the short term and is a good long term pick. It had gone upto 333 on 14th December.

SYNDICATE BANK Close 75.45
Buy the stock as it has limited downside left now maximum upto 66 levels. The stock had gone upto 131 on 2nd Jan and is ready for a up swing upto 90 in the short term.

BHARATI SHIPYARD Close 507.65
This will go upto 600 very fast as it has given a U turn and having gone upto 861 in Jan, the stock is poised again now to go up.

RELIGARE Close 375.90
This too is ready to go upto 450 fast as it is on the verge of a breakout. 722 it had touched in Jan and is almost down by half. Buy with a stop of 355.

TV 18 Close 345.90
This is also a fast mover and will go upto 400 in the near term having come down from 599.80 levels achieved in January.

NAGARJUNA CONSTRUCTION Close 191.95
The stock has also taken a huge beating from 372 hit in Jan and now is consolidating with supports in the 180 zone. Buy and hold to get 250 in the short and near term.

Weekly Review

The week had edged higher at 15807 up by 464 points than the previous week’s close of 15343. It seems now that 15000 should hold for the time being and hence one can expect the index to first scale 16200 . Next week is crucial for further momentum to be ascertained. Following are a few delivery calls which can prove to be fruitful.

JET AIRWAYS Close 536.55

The stock had in December 2007 peaked to 1049.80 which is almost 49 % down and now should not go below 515 in the near term. Buy now for reversal is due any time and one can expect it to reach 600 in the short term.

HCL TECH Close 230.20

The stock is a good buy now and at declines since it may not go below 215 now. It had peaked to 336 in December 2007 and gives a good buying opportunity. We can expect it to go beyond 300 in the coming months.

STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA Close 162.20

The stock is ready for a upmove to 185 levels as it has fallen substantially from a height of 292.50 achieved in December 2007 and one can buy with a stop of 148 since it is quite near a reversal pattern.

NIRMA Close 156

A steady stock only for the patient investor. It is quite close to support levels of 145 and one can enter and hold for it to reach 190 again. It may move slowly but it had also peaked to 272 in December and hence remains a good pick.

NIIT Close 94

The stock had hit a high of 159 in January this year and is now nearing its bottom levels. Supports exist at 85 and hence one can enter now for it will quickly go upto 115 to 120.

ALOK INDUSTRIES Close 59.65

This too has supports in the 52 range and hence one can take delivery of this stock for it will again start its upmove to at least 75 levels. In January it had peaked at 107.75

BALLARPUR INDUSTRIES Close 26.20

After having split recently it has come down from 37 levels to 26 ( it means a rate of 130 prior to split ) Not much risk now in the stock as it will bounce back from now or at the most 21/22 levels. Buy now for a target of 33.